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The PIMCO Municipal Advantage
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Embrace Change: Top 5 Municipal Market Insights for 2022
The case for municipal bonds
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Muni Risk Management: Integrated, Independent & Insightful
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Merit in munis
Bonds with benefits
Muni investors eye sustainability
SHELTERING FROM TURBULENCE
A haven from turmoil in Eastern Europe
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As investors look for havens from the turmoil in Ukraine, municipal bonds have shown great potential. Sheltered by many layers of government, municipalities are safeguarded from the global geopolitical conflict, and their green credentials – characterized by the uptake in construction projects focusing on alternative energy and climate risk – have gathered them widespread appeal.
Prime time to buy Munis
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Think municipal bonds are simply a passive play? Think again
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January posed the worst start to a year for tax-exempt municipal bonds since 1981, which made for an attractive opening into a fundamentally sound market for investors. At Citywire’s third Due Diligence Report virtual event of 2022, five muni market experts discuss buying opportunities and reveal where they are finding their best ideas.
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Prime time to buy munis
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We explore our extensive buy list data to reveal the favourite ESG funds among selectors
Footnotes ¹ Source: Strategic Insight and Bloomberg as of Dec. 31, 2021. ² Source: US Congress and J.P. Morgan Research as of Nov. 22, 2021. Important Information The opinions expressed are those of the speakers, are based on current market conditions as of February 11, 2022 and are subject to change without notice. These opinions may differ from those of other Invesco investment professionals. This does not constitute a recommendation of any investment strategy or product for a particular investor. Investors should consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions. Should this contain any forward looking statements, understand they are not guarantees of future results. They involve risks, uncertainties, and assumptions. There can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from expectations. This is not intended to be legal or tax advice. Investors should seek advice from a tax professional. Fixed-income investments are subject to credit risk of the issuer and the effects of changing interest rates. Interest rate risk refers to the risk that bond prices generally fall as interest rates rise and vice versa. An issuer may be unable to meet interest and/or principal payments, thereby causing its instruments to decrease in value and lowering the issuer’s credit rating. Municipal securities are subject to the risk that litigation, legislation or other political events, local business or economic conditions or the bankruptcy of the issuer could have a significant effect on an issuer’s ability to make payments of principal and/or interest. Municipal securities can be significantly affected by political changes as well as uncertainties in the municipal market related to taxation, legislative changes or the rights of municipal security holders. Because many securities are issued to finance similar projects, especially those relating to education, health care, transportation and utilities, conditions in those sectors can affect the overall municipal market. In addition, changes in the financial condition of an individual municipal insurer can affect the overall municipal market. Municipal insurance doesn’t protest against losses in the Fund. The Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index is an unmanaged index considered representative of the tax-exempt bond market. An investment cannot be made directly into an index. The yield curve plots interest rates, at a set point in time, of bonds having equal credit quality but differing maturity dates. A flat yield curve is one in which there is little difference in the yields for short-term and long-term bonds of the same credit quality. In a normal yield curve, longer-term bonds have a higher yield. Duration is a measure of the sensitivity of the price (the value of principal) of a fixed income investment to a change in interest rates. Duration is expressed as a number of years. Tapering is the gradual winding down of central bank activities that aimed to reverse poor economic conditions. Taper tantrum refers to the market panic that occured in 2013 when the Federal Reserve began to taper its activities. SIFMA stands for the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association. The SIFMA rate is the most common measure of short-term tax-exempt rates. The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a broad measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight collateralized by Treasury securities. A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point. This does not constitute a recommendation of any investment strategy or product for a particular investor. Investors should consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions. Before investing, investors should carefully read the prospectus and/or summary prospectus and carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. For this and more complete information about the fund(s), investors should ask their financial professional for a prospectus/summary prospectus or visit invesco.com/fundprospectus. Invesco Distributors, Inc. 03/22 NA2074791
2022 got off to a rough start for the municipal bond market as the anticipation of rising interest rates led to significant outflows from the asset class. Is this an overreaction? Invesco’s Mark Paris, Head of Municipals, and Stephanie Larosiliere, Head of Municipal Business Strategies and Development, discuss the fundamentals of the muni market, their approach to finding value in the marketplace, and the parts of the market that look most attractive to them right now. How has 2022 treated the municipal bond market so far? Stephanie Larosiliere: If you ask where flows are going, they're not going to munis right now. We had a really nice 2021 — we actually hit $102 billion worth of inflows into our market, which is a record since 1992, when we started keeping track of that number.¹ But here year-to-date, everyone has been on the sidelines. Everyone is waiting to see what is going to happen with interest rates. So we didn't have that “January effect” that we normally have in the muni market. We had quite a bit of volatility. Are investors overly concerned about Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening? Mark Paris: If rates are going up, municipal prices are probably going to go down. But it doesn't have to move in lockstep. What we're telling investors is to remember why they buy munis – for the tax-exempt income. Nothing has changed in the muni market, except that credit fundamentals are actually better year-over-year, thanks to the federal stimulus. True, taxes haven't gone up, but they also haven't gone down. And so, you really need to look at your portfolio and compare what you're getting tax free versus what you're getting taxable. We see way too many investors get out and then get back in at higher levels once the market starts recovering. So that's always my concern. It's a hard ride to higher interest rates, but if investors can ride it out, I think things will be okay. Stephanie Larosiliere: The last thing the Fed wants to do is curtail the growth we've seen — or to have a Taper Tantrum Part Two. So that's on their radar. And when it comes to the municipal bond market, the one thing I always stress is why are rates rising? If rates are rising for what I like to think of as the “right reason,” which is the economy's getting better, we can withstand the rate hike. We like to talk about municipal projects as being a pure play on the US economy—in other words, these projects tend to do well as the economy does well. Rates do matter. We are a bond market, after all. But when you look at it over the long term, rates are not what drive municipal performance, what drives municipal performance are the underlying credit fundamentals. What do those credit fundamentals look like now that we are two years away from the earliest days of the coronavirus pandemic? Stephanie Larosiliere: Things are completely different today. When the pandemic started, with everyone sitting at home, we didn’t know what was going to happen to municipal projects. What was going to happen to usage fees? Were we going to see mortgage delinquencies? Would people stop paying property taxes and water/sewer bills? And in the face of that, the federal government supported the muni market in a way that we've never seen before. There is actually a total of $1.6 trillion dollars that is earmarked for muni issuers related to various stimulus bills.² Where are muni issuers spending this money? Stephanie Larosiliere: It’s under the mattress right now. And that's what puts these projects in really good positions, in our view — they’re sitting on more cash than they've ever had. They have access to more cash than they've ever needed. This really allows the state and local governments to make the updates to infrastructure that they need to make without having to go into their coffers. Because the federal government basically said, "We will help you. We will make sure that you can fund this to ensure that Americans have the infrastructure that we need." What about some of the trouble spots we used to hear about in the muni market? Are those places looking better today? Mark Paris: The Chicago school system is actually in a much better position than it's been in probably over a decade. Most of Puerto Rico is in a very positive workout situation. What we're seeing right now, specifically from the third stimulus bill that happened early last year, is that even the deeply problematic areas of muni credit have really soared back to a place where we're very comfortable fundamentally, not just for this year, but for a couple of years going forward as well. Let’s take a quick tour of revenue bonds. How are different areas of the market faring with society moving back toward normal activity? Mark Paris: We love the transportation sector — that's the way this country is going to come back. People are going to get back on planes and that helps airports. Maybe we're not going to do a day trip from New York to Chicago any longer — we’ll do that through Zoom instead. But the two-day, three-day business trips are going to come back. Leisure trips are certainly going to come back, and we've already seen that in some ways. Airports get a lot of revenue from the departure and origination flights that happen out of them. We have great research on all of the airports in this country. We know how to look at them. We know how to judge them. We know how to look at the demographics of how things are changing. And we are still very bullish on the airport and the airline sectors, as people continue to increase the amount of time that they spend on planes. I think even if we get to 75% or 80% of our previous travel activity, airlines and airports are going to be just fine. The dormitory sector is definitely coming back as more and more students are returning to campus. I think a year ago you had a choice: go back to campus or do it online now. More students are back at campus. So that's a very positive development as well. Stephanie Larosiliere: I think it's all going to be about credit research. When we start to look at the details of these individual sectors, it's about our analysts understanding the demographics and geographics. You might have a convention center in one area that can pick up the pace and have that reopening trade. And you have another area where that convention center's not going to make it. So that's where you really rely on the experience and depth of knowledge of credit research to make that assessment. Tell us about your team’s depth of knowledge. Mark Paris: We cover about 5,200 credits across our entire municipal complex, so we touch over 90% of the Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index on a market value basis. And we have a great analyst team, 25 strong, dedicated just purely to municipals. We understand the way muni credits work, the way muni governments work. It’s very different than the way the federal government works. Things actually get done at the muni level. They pass budgets, Republicans and Democrats seem to get along a little bit better and pass some bills. It's a lot of credits to follow, but we feel like we have the kind of experience that lets us do that. We average around 20 years’ experience between the portfolio managers and the analysts (as of March 2022). That experience matters – it gives me a lot of comfort in knowing we know what we're looking at. We know what we're looking to buy, and we know what we want to sell. As interest rates rise, what areas of the municipal bond market look most favorable to you? Stephanie Larosiliere: In terms of where to go at this point in time, one of the things we've been talking about has been the front end of the curve — a lot of short-term muni funds own bonds that are pegged to the SIFMA rate, which is essentially the muni SOFR rate. The SIFMA rate has been at five basis points for as long as I can remember. But in February we saw it rise to 17 basis points. It doesn't sound like much, but it was a pretty nice uptick. And it shows that the muni market is finally acclimating to those higher rates that we're seeing in the Treasury market. So I think short-term munis are really nice opportunities to be able to take advantage of these higher rates, particularly those that have pretty decent exposure to that SIFMA rate. And as SIFMA continues to reset, those bonds can start yielding at higher rates. I also like high yield. I really think that's another nice spot for people who want to barbell some of that risk — front end and then high yield. Mark Paris: And in my view, if you own a long high yield fund, you may want to own some of the short duration high yield as well. We think the short rate is going to rise first. We anticipate a flattening of the yield curve. And so at some point, floating rate short paper may a good thing to own. Shorter duration paper may a good thing to own. And as Stephanie mentioned, we believe in the long run through this cycle, high yield is going to be very good to own because it's going to be less sensitive to duration across the cycle. So does anything keep you up at night? Mark Paris: I know investors are worried about interest rate moves, and I know that this is a difficult period of time. I do worry that the Fed could overstep. I think Fed Chair Jerome Powell's done a wonderful job. I like Lael Brainard a lot, on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. I have a lot of faith in our Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. But I'm a little bit worried that they might overstep. However, I'm comforted by a lot of what Stephanie was talking about before: Municipalities have a lot of money in their coffers, and I believe they can ride it out if the Fed does go too far. So, at this stage of the game, I know investors are on a roller coaster and worried about everything. And that's the beauty of having an active manager. I can tell you all of the portfolio managers on my staff, all of our analysts, all of the people on Stephanie's team. We are very, very active thinking about what to do, where to position our strategies so that when the market does stabilize and come back, we're in a great position for our investors. Learn about our municipal capabilities Listen to Invesco’s Greater Possibilities podcast featuring Mark and Stephanie
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Stephanie Larosiliere
Head of Municipal Business Strategies and Development
Mark Paris
Head of Municipals
Embrace Change
The past two years’ events are undoubtedly altering the future direction of our lives: where we live, how we work, learn and communicate and how to prudently invest in municipal bonds. In many respects, pre-existing trends are accelerating. In higher education for example, acceptance of virtual instruction has vaulted forward and is shifting our relative value assessments. Passive buy and hold municipal strategies such as ladder portfolios and most separately managed accounts (SMAs) may have worked historically but now lack the flexibility to generate excess return in the evolving municipal market. We note these dramatic structural shifts in the market: taxable issuance likely exceeds $100 billion for the third year in a row, 5% plus coupon structures have declined from 63.2% issuance in 2017 to 34.6% today,¹ and the Non-Rated percentage of the Bloomberg High Yield Municipal Index now exceeds 61% – up from 40.9% in 2017.2 This year’s five insights focus on the stark shifts occurring in the municipal bond market and provide our roadmap for embracing and capitalizing on the changes that lay ahead.
We believe credit-sensitive municipal bonds provide a larger cushion against inflation relative to other fixed income investments of similar quality because municipal bond credit tends to improve with inflation. Many taxes supporting municipal credits increase as asset prices rise. For example, general obligation issuers collect higher ad valorem taxes as real estate values grow. Dedicated tax bonds increase coverage ratios as the prices of taxed items rise. An array of municipal credits, including toll road financings and tobacco bonds, incorporate annual inflation adjustments in their covenants that increase revenues available to debt service. Adjusting fixed income exposures in favor of municipal bonds can help mitigate potential higher inflation.
Chris Roberti
Managing Director, Chief Marketing Officer MacKay Shields
1. Source: Bloomberg, 12/2021. 2. Source: FactSet. 3 .Source: Moody’s, Barclays Research, 12/2021. 4. Source: Bloomberg. 5. Source: Bloomberg, Morningstar. 6. Source: Bloomberg, 12/2021.
All investments are subject to market risk, including possible loss of principal. Municipal bond risks include the ability of the issuer to repay the obligation, the relative lack of information about certain issuers, and the possibility of future tax and legislative changes, which could affect the market for and value of municipal securities. Investing in below investment grade securities may carry a greater risk of nonpayment of interest or principal than higher-rated securities. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, which will vary. All investments are subject to market risk and will fluctuate in value. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Active management is the use of a human element, such as a single manager, co-managers or a team of managers, to actively manage a fund’s portfolio. Active management strategies typically have higher fees than passive management. Alpha measures a fund’s risk adjusted performance and is expressed as an annualized percentage. Bloomberg High Yield Municipal Index covers the high yield portion of the USD-denominated long-term tax-exempt bond market. The index has four main sectors: state and local general obligation bonds, insured bonds, and pre-refunded bonds. Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based benchmark that measures the investment-grade, U.S. dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market, including Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, mortgage-backed securities (agency fixed-rate and hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage pass-throughs), asset-backed securities, and commercial mortgage-backed securities. The de minimis rule states that if a discount is less than 0.25% of the face value for each full year from the date of purchase to maturity, then it is too small (that is, de minimis) to be considered a market discount for tax purposes. Instead, the accretion should be treated as a capital gain. This material contains the opinions of the MacKay Municipal Managers™ team of MacKay Shields LLC but not necessarily those of MacKay Shields LLC. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This material is distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and opinions contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. Any forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made and MacKay Shields assumes no duty and does not undertake to update forward-looking statements. No part of this document may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of MacKay Shields LLC. ©2022, MacKay Shields LLC. All rights reserved.
Top 5 Municipal Market Insights for 2022
“Change is the law of life. And those who look only to the past or present are certain to miss the future.”
John F. Kennedy
1
Transitory or not: View municipal investments as an inflation hedge
Elevated tactical trading drives returns
Active management should differentiate performance outcomes in an expected lackluster 2022 municipal market. We believe one-to ten-year ladder strategies and/or SMAs will lag actively managed strategies, which may be counterintuitive to many municipal investors. We expect heightened levels of portfolio activity centered on tactical allocations among bond structures and credit qualities to produce meaningful alpha in portfolios. In addition, strategic cash allocations can balance portfolio duration and fund the purchases of securities in the event of volatility. In 2022, investors should be mindful of active strategy claims from managers whose trading is primarily tied to reinvestment. In our view, traditional passive municipal investors shifting to tactical active management in 2022 may improve outcomes.
2
Maintain overweight in high yield then begin to trade up in quality mid-year
We believe an overweight position in high yield municipals could drive outperformance through at least the first half of 2022. Any potential gains then may provide a buffer against an anticipated sluggish second half. Select – certainly not all – high yield municipal issuers emerged from lockdowns in strong financial condition as the ratio of ratings upgrades to downgrades in 2021 hit its highest level since at least 2013.³ Therefore, investors can retain those high yield municipal credits with more confidence. In addition, those holdings stand to benefit from the market’s positive technical outlook. We see Puerto Rico’s emergence from bankruptcy producing a massive payout of cash that drives reinvestment demand in a market already short on supply. That demand tightens high yield spreads and contributes to strong relative returns compared to rate sensitive high grades in our view. Patient credit investors adjusting their strategy as the year progresses could be rewarded for their flexibility.
3
Shift focus to structure as fiscal policy [spending] gives way to monetary policy
While fundamental credit selection remains essential to generating favorable relative returns, we believe the main performance driver shifts from the federal spending support of municipal credit to the monetary policy impact on structure. For example, municipal investors must contend with the longer durations of lower coupon bonds. Since 2017, 2% and 3% coupons have risen from 16.1% to 29.8% of tax-exempt issuance as defensive coupon structures were refunded.⁴ We see patient, active investors generating alpha by trading around periods of rising volatility exacerbated by wider ownership of lower coupons and potentially rising rates. In addition, municipal expertise is essential to understanding the nuanced aspects of municipal structure. For example, holders of 2% and 3% coupons should be prepared for the Market Discount Rule (i.e. “de minimis”) impact on total return. In our view, investors modifying their strategy to incorporate structure decisions could discover new modes of potentially generating excess returns
4
Taxable municipals outperform… again
In 2022, we believe taxable municipal bonds will extend ten years of inflation-adjusted outperformance versus most of the investment grade U.S. market.⁵ We expect growing investor demand for high quality, monopoly-like municipals drives this outperformance. Issuers’ ability to raise taxes and fees on their essential services maintains adequate debt service coverage, stabilizes credit ratings and reduces bond price sensitivity to rising rates and higher inflation. As a result, the price correlation between taxable municipal bonds and other taxable market segments can decline. The investment grade taxable market, as measured by the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index, is approximately 44% U.S. Treasury and Government related securities⁶ and investors traditionally tracking this benchmark are facing significant exposure to both interest rate and inflation risk. In 2022, expected higher taxable municipal supply and trading volumes will likely attract new, non-traditional investors looking for low- correlation, high quality assets. As a result of these factors, we expect taxable municipals to reward investors who increase exposure to the asset class within their fixed income allocations.
5
For more information: 888-474-7725 newyorklifeinvestments.com
MacKay Municipal Managers is a trademark of MacKay Shields LLC. MacKay Shields LLC is a wholly owned subsidiary of New York Life Investment Management Holdings LLC, which is wholly owned by New York Life Insurance Company. “New York Life Investments” is both a service mark, and the common trade name, of certain investment advisors affiliated with New York Life Insurance Company. Securities are distributed by NYLIFE Distributors LLC, 30 Hudson Street, Jersey City, NJ 07302, a wholly owned subsidiary of New York Life Insurance Company. NYLIFE Distributors LLC is a Member FINRA/SIPC. 1924941 MS190-21 MS18r-01/22
Fund buyers:
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Municipal bonds are a perennially resilient asset class that appears likely to weather political headwinds once again, writes Gareth Platt
Sheltering from
The equities markets reacted in typical style to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Within hours of Vladimir Putin’s troops crossing their western border, the UK’s FTSE 100 had suffered its biggest one-day fall since June 2020, dropping 3.9%. The Dow and S&P then followed suit, shedding more than 2.5% in early trading. Although the markets have cooled a little since then, investors continue to look for havens from the turmoil in Eastern Europe. Money markets have witnessed substantial inflows, as have precious metals like gold and palladium. ‘Plus ça change’, the French might say: the more things change, the more they stay the same (at least when it comes to asset management). But what about municipal bonds – or ‘munis’ for short? This often-overlooked asset class has seen a rare spate of outflows recently, fueled by fears that the Fed’s planned rate hike will eat into already skinny yields. But if you look beyond the slim returns, munis offer a seriously compelling pitch to investors right now. There are the tax breaks, of course: munis are typically exempt from Federal Income Tax, which offsets the relatively low returns. But beyond that, they represent something of a shield from the crisis in Ukraine. Because munis are essentially inward-looking, focused on domestic projects like schools and railroads, they offer a level of insulation that other fixed income assets do not. Some commentators will disagree, of course. They will tell you that the crisis in the East may trigger another global recession, which would have obvious knock-ons for key municipal bond projects like airports and shopping malls. And they’d probably add that Covid-19 remains a major problem, as demonstrated by the increasing death rate in the US and rising infection rates internationally. The longer this continues, the worse the hypothetical consequences are for muni staples like public transportation networks and senior living centres. But consider the facts. Muni default rates are low. Like really, really low. Even in 2020, when the world was going into lockdown, muni defaults represented 0.05% of the total value outstanding. Between 1970 and 2020, the rate was only 0.08%, compared to 6.89% for global corporates. Nice hedge Will this be different now? Well, it’s worth considering the economic barriers that exist between the US and Eastern Europe. America’s trade with Russia and Ukraine is worth around $40bn combined. To put that into context, trade with Canada, the largest US trade partner of all, is worth more than $650bn. What’s more, the muni market is dominated by public issuers – state and local governments seeking funding for construction projects. Yes, there are some corporate issuers, such as BP, who are likely to be significantly affected by events in the East, but they represent a small slice of the overall pie. Daniel Solender, partner and director of tax-free fixed income at Lord Abbett, is certainly optimistic. ‘From a credit quality perspective muni credit is doing very well,’ he says, ‘and it doesn’t have a lot of exposure to Russia.’ Jim Conn, senior vice president and portfolio manager in Franklin Templeton’s fixed income division, is similarly bullish. ‘From a ground level view, the connection between the municipal bond market and the war in Ukraine seems obscure,’ says Conn. ‘But with more than 56,000 issuers using more than one million cusips [unique identification numbers] for financing infrastructure, the municipal debt market is highly fragmented and localized. Most municipalities are separated by many layers of government from the global geopolitical landscape.’ We should also consider the rude health that munis are in right now. They’ve received well over $1tn in federal funds, and further funding is committed for the coming years. President Biden’s infrastructure drive continues apace, despite the international uncertainty. What’s more, the US economy continues to gather pace – as indicated by the positive jobs data released at the start of March – and is widely tipped to withstand the headwinds blowing in from Europe. This recovery is already parlaying into municipal revenues, as Jason Appleson, head of municipal bonds at PGIM Fixed Income, explains. ‘Tax collections have been coming in well above projections, leading states and local government to record surpluses. Fundamental stability has extended to revenue bonds as well. Hospitals, airports, universities among others have benefitted from a variety of factors, including a strong domestic economy and a post-Covid reopening. ‘On a fundamental basis, munis ostensibly appear to be a nice hedge to the crisis unfolding in Ukraine.’ Increasingly competitive Against these positive claims, of course, there are the yields. And it’s hard to escape the fact that returns are pretty low right now: during 2021, investment grade munis returned only 1.52%. The figure for 10-year, AAA-rated bonds is currently even lower. However, it’s important to place these figures in context. Yield-hunters can find higher yields by going for longer maturities: returns on 30-year AAAs are nearing 2%, and A-rated bonds, which still carry an extremely low default rate, are offering as much as 2.35%. Now set these figures against other fixed income staples. Triple-A bonds are only offering 3.26% right now, and they are far more exposed to the Ukraine crisis than munis (plus they offer fewer tax breaks). Ten-year US Treasuries, meanwhile, are offering only 1.9%. In this light, the risk/return profile of munis appears encouraging. Looking to the longer term, Kevin Nicholson, global fixed income CIO at Riverfront Investment Group in Richmond, Virginia, believes that even if the Fed raises rates, munis will become increasingly competitive. ‘Despite Treasury yields falling due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, this will be a short-lived phenomenon as upward pressure will be put on Treasuries as the Fed raises interest rates. ‘Municipals stand to benefit both on the front end and the back end. Municipal yields fell along with treasuries in the flight to quality and they should have less upward pressure on them as the Fed normalizes rates and begins quantitative tightening.’ This isn’t to say munis offer a panacea for those seeking sanctuaries. PGIM’s Appleson is generally positive about their credentials but he recognizes there are several caveats to bear in mind. ‘As the West cuts off Russia from the global financial system, additional supply shocks from energy and mining sectors may continue to feed inflation,’ he says. ‘Higher inflation may continue to drive rates higher, especially as the Fed commences a rate hiking cycle. Municipal fund flows, and ultimately performance, are highly correlated to rates. ‘Additionally, the US government has advised managers of critical infrastructure, often municipal issuers, of possible cyber retaliation from ongoing sanctions. Widespread cyber-attacks targeted at bringing down government systems for an extended period of time could impact the credit of some municipal issuers, even if they are carrying higher levels of cash.’ Nonetheless, there is plenty to like about munis right now. Their resilience and immunity to wider economic shocks have been proven time and again, and the buoyancy in the US economy appears likely to offset the effect of any fallout from Russia’s aggression against its neighbor. Munis are not one of the most glamorous options for investors, to be sure. But they remain among the most effective.
Daniel Solender, Lord Abbett
turbulence
Jason Appleson, PGIM
KYIV, UKRAINE
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The FOMC is expected to begin tightening its monetary policy over the coming months in response to U.S. CPI inflation reaching a multidecade high. Meanwhile, the economic growth outlook in the U.S. is generally positive, as it appears the country’s labor force is close to full employment and consumer spending is expected to rise in 2022 due to pent-up demand coupled with strong household savings rates. All this has helped feed the heightened volatility recently seen in the municipal bond market, which we expect to continue in 2022 as price discovery continues. With an abundance of seemingly contradictory information floating around, it can become difficult to discern the true drivers of volatility in the market, and more importantly, how volatility will impact performance. Asset managers’ risk management practices will be especially critical going forward as they are forced to navigate impending short-term volatility, whether it stems from policy adjustments, pandemic developments, or other sources of economic uncertainty. The term “risk management” is commonly misinterpreted to mean risk avoidance or mitigation. Franklin Templeton’s Municipal Bond team takes a more positive view -- that periods of heightened price dislocation create more opportunities to capture relative value. With that in mind, we seek to optimize risk rather than simply minimize it. Our approach to risk management is distinct, holistic and permeates every part of our investment process. What exactly does that look like in practice? Risk management is incorporated from the very beginning, playing an active role in credit research. We have an established set of risk guidelines which are integrated throughout our investment process and continuously tracked for every portfolio by our Independent Risk Management Group. The group establishes and monitors these risk guidelines based on outputs from a proprietary risk monitoring system, which utilizes a high frequency data feed to create a customized view of peer portfolios in real time. Importantly, the risk metrics being monitored are directly aligned with the unique aspects of the muni market rather than trying to apply taxable fixed income risk metrics to this unique sector. The Franklin Municipal team also has a dedicated senior quantitative portfolio analyst embedded directly in the team. That analyst provides powerful, actionable insights throughout our investment process in the form of proprietary, customized data visualization tools. These allow the team to conduct quick comparisons across strategies as well as create a complete view of portfolio risks. Ultimately, our risk management framework enables the team to better understand, quantify and optimize where we allocate risk across our portfolios. Supported by the close collaboration fostered by daily team interactions and formal weekly strategy meetings, it gives the team confidence to make decisions that align with the underlying views about the economy and markets. We feel strongly that no single measure or methodology can reveal the “truth” about risk. Instead, an effective mosaic of analytics, oversight protocols and consultation is required to obtain a holistic understanding of a portfolio’s risk positioning in today’s municipal bond market. We believe our time-tested framework enables our portfolio managers to accurately recognize investment risks, assess them in a timely manner and avoid unintentional risk exposures. We believe this approach is unique and should continue to help us pursue positive returns in 2022, taking advantage of sound fundamentals in the municipal bond market, despite slightly weaker technical factors. Current valuations offer an attractive entry point for investors that have been sidelined by perceived low nominal yields. The same value potential exists for investors looking to add to existing investments now that municipal bond prices have declined relative to Treasuries. As a result, we believe that active managers’ best chance to outperform will depend on credit selection for the remainder of 2022, one that we hope to take advantage of with optimized risk management.
Ben Barber
SVP, Director of Municipal Bonds
Franklin Templeton Municipal Bond Department
2022 is shaping up to be a year for ‘greening’ the municipal bond market. More issuers are looking to tie project financing to ESG goals as more investors want to up the number of ESG investments in their portfolios. 2021 was a record year in this aspect. According to global ratings agency Standard and Poor’s, the sustainable municipal bond market rose 71% to $46bn, while the rest of the muni market declined in size. The agency expects to see a 34% increase in sustainable munis to $62bn this year, taking its share of the overall muni market to 13% from 9.7% in 2021, 5.5% in 2020 and 3.2% in 2019. Even if interest rates rise or other headwinds curtail growth, expectations are high. ‘For our low case scenario, we anticipate municipal sustainable debt issuance to reach $55bn, but we still expect market share to grow significantly higher to 12% of the total market,’ S&P analysts said in a research note. New products S&P breaks out its coverage of sustainable municipal bonds into three groups: green, social and sustainability bonds. Green bonds are those that have been registered as green bonds by the Climate Bonds Initiative, have received green evaluations by S&P Global Ratings or are otherwise self-labeled as green. Social and sustainability bonds are labeled as such by S&P based on a review of the offering statement. In 2021, all three segments saw significant increases in new issuance. Green bonds rose 36% to $22bn, social bonds rose 148% to $17bn and sustainability bonds rose 81% to $7bn. In addition to new issuance, the second half of last year saw the launch of new products that are likely to play a greater role this year. In September, ETF issuer VanEck launched the VanEck HIP Sustainable Muni ETF – the first ETF to track this part of the muni market. In December, Bloomberg launched the Bloomberg U.S. Municipal Impact Index, which will serve as a benchmark index for municipal bonds categorized as green, social and sustainability. Bloomberg expects the index to drive the creation of ETFs focused on sustainable municipal bonds – a market that has more than doubled in the past three years. Climate risk At the end of last year, the US government passed the Bipartisan Infrastructure Framework (BIF) which will provide a fresh round of funding to states and municipalities for infrastructure projects – and serve as a tailwind for sustainable munis in 2022. There is also growing pressure on localities to consider climate risk and energy diversity, which could lead to increased issuance to fund projects that will respond to those concerns. ‘There has always been more noise around green munis and some of these other types of bonds than money behind them but that’s starting to change,’ says Bill Mock, a portfolio manager at Denver-based multi-strategy asset manager Shelton Capital Management. ‘Cities, counties, and states are considering projects from an ESG standpoint because of issues like climate risk and energy consumption. There’s more to the discussion now than just keeping bridges from falling down.’ Paul Herman, chief executive and founder of HIP Investor, which provides the sustainability rating data for the VanEck SMI fund, agrees. ‘Localities are really focusing on issues like climate and are looking for ways to respond to that risk,’ he says. ‘As we look at the drivers going into 2022, there is an increasing number of green bonds and sustainability bonds being issued. Many of those bonds are tied to specific sustainability targets.’ PAB projects Much of the growth in sustainable municipal bonds is likely to come from private activity bonds. PABs are tax-exempt and provide special financing benefits for qualified projects. These bonds give localities a little more latitude when it comes to structuring issuance that has specific sustainability goals in mind. In February, the state of Louisiana announced one such issue – a $250m financing for the Louisiana Green Fuels project. It is the first renewable diesel fuel project in North America to achieve negative carbon emissions by converting forestry waste into cleaner-burning renewable diesel. Once in operation, it will produce around 34 million gallons of renewable fuel per year. Also in February, Nevada announced it would use PABs to fund affordable housing projects throughout the state. Fourteen affordable housing projects currently under construction will bring 2,898 affordable housing units online by early 2024. Housing completed through this financing is to remain affordable for a minimum of 30 years from the date of completion. Congress is also finalizing new allowances for PABs created within the infrastructure package that finances municipal carbon capture projects, broadband expansion, and highway and surface freight transfer facilities. All of these represent new types of sustainable municipal exposure that will become available to investors in the near term and beyond. Standardized framework Right now, much of ESG muni issuance is self-labeled, which means that investors still have to get under the hood and decide if they agree with the label. With a set of common standards, analysts suggest that localities could cut funding costs by issuing more ESG muni bonds and investors might be able to realize an ESG premium. Under the current non-existent framework, that is hard to do consistently. Municipal ratings groups are putting more pressure on issuers to provide ESG data so that bonds can be effectively rated within an ESG lens. The Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board is considering a framework that would standardize ESG disclosure within the municipal bond space. Investors with ESG mandates want this, too. The creation of a codified external review process for ESG muni bonds could bring more investors into the market – provided they can align issuance to their ESG requirements. The traditional municipal bond market is largely dominated by older individual investors who have municipal bonds as a tax-favored part of their core fixed income portfolio. However, S&P analysts say in their research note that there is a wider investor base interested in ESG municipal bonds, including institutions and international investors with ESG mandates. Given recent geopolitical concerns, investors are also putting more emphasis on diversification – and sustainable munis aid diversification within a fixed income portfolio, adds Shelton Capital’s Mock. For him, the desire for a framework and the growing interest in ESG municipal bonds was almost inevitable. The municipal market tends to lag trends found in other parts of the fixed income market but the shift toward sustainability is a structural one that affects all parts of financial markets and society. ‘It’s happening slowly but more investors are asking about the ESG impact of these bonds,’ he says.
2021 was a record-breaking year for the growth of ESG muni bonds and 2022 is likely to be another one, writes Bailey McCann
Bill Mock, Shelton Capital Management
So far in 2022, financial markets have been upended as investors confront the reality of the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) and other central banks around the world transitioning away from unprecedented monetary policy accommodation that’s been so supportive to equity and fixed income valuations. The degree to which—and by how much—central banks remove such accommodation, while confronting inflation readings not seen in decades, has resulted in a significant rise in market volatility and uncertainty. Municipal bonds have been no exception, as this year the asset class is off to one of its worst starts on record. Transition and change are nothing new for municipal bonds. In fact, the trend’s been ongoing since the global financial crisis of 2007-2009. The $4 trillion municipal bond market is now dominated by mutual funds and other institutionally oriented investors such as banks and insurance companies, no longer the buy-and-hold mindset of mom-and-pop retail. Factoring in some of the high profile and unprecedented adverse credit events of the last several years (notably the bankruptcies of the city of Detroit and the territory of Puerto Rico), Principal believes the path to successfully navigate this new institutional municipal landscape is via an active professional manager. A manager with a disciplined, repeatable process. One with the appropriate skill set in sector and security selection in portfolio construction, in addition to proper duration positioning. Tax-exempt universe: Who owns what, and trading patterns. With more than $100 billion in new cash, 2021 was a record year for flows into tax-exempt mutual funds and ETFs¹, further increasing the influence of mutual fund activity on market direction and trading patterns. Open-end mutual funds held $972 billion in assets, per the most recent data from the Fed at the end of Q3 2021². That’s nearly three times what was held at the end of 2007. Said differently, open-ended mutual funds now account for 24% of municipal bond ownership versus just 11% in 2007. Conversely, individual ownership has been reduced to 46% from 50%. When factoring in closed-end funds and ETF’s, professionally managed funds ownership rises to nearly 29%. With a historically uncorrelated risk profile to other financial assets, bank and insurance ownership have increased exposure as well. Collectively, banks and insurance companies own more than $1 trillion worth of municipal debt, or about 25% of total assets—far higher than the 18% held in 2007³. With a larger percentage of municipal assets aggregated into more institutionally oriented vehicles, the net impact on trading and liquidity has also changed dramatically since the global financial crisis. When measured against trading activity from five years ago, the total number of trades executed in 2021 declined by nearly 1.7 million from the number executed in 2016⁴. Concentration hasn’t just occurred on the buy side. From 2006 to 2017, dealer inventories decreased 67%⁵, due to declining trade volumes and capital efficiency. With trading activity becoming more concentrated among buyers and sellers and in larger size, the ability of traditional direct retail to efficiently execute in secondary market trading has become increasingly impaired with respect to bid/ ask spreads. Fundamentals looking strong … for now. Buoyed by an unprecedented amount of fiscal aid, along with an economy fully rebounding from the depths of the pandemic, one might argue the financial condition of state and local governments has never been more solid. From the Cares Act of 2020 to the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act passed in November 2021, the U.S. Congress has given more than $1.5 trillion of funds to tax-exempt obligors, positively impacting every sector of the tax-exempt market and resulting in numerous positive rating actions and outlooks by all three independent rating agencies. But the pace of that improvement is likely to slow in the coming year and beyond. Especially if we’re confronted with another virus variant that may once again adversely impact certain municipal credits (i.e., hospitals, airports, travel-related user fees). Additionally, Principal believes that unknowns such as climate change, cybersecurity, inflation, labor shortages, and changing population demographics will all play a role in future revenue trends for municipal credit. With credit—and credit trends—now playing an outsized role on valuations, working with a municipal manager versed in such detail is key to navigating the municipal landscape. Look ahead: Think active. The municipal universe has undergone tremendous change over the last decade. And continued change is the only certainty. What hasn’t changed is the value proposition of owning tax-exempt income. Today’s higher yields, along with expected higher personal taxes in the future once the Tax Cuts & Jobs Act sunsets, we think will only increase the appeal of municipal bonds for investors. The tax-exempt market remains a predominately high-quality asset class, and with a $4 trillion universe with more than 55,000 different issuers6, we believe it requires an active professional manager to help navigate future challenges.
James Welch
Portfolio Manager, Principal Global Fixed Income
Active management can complement your existing municipal bond holdings to potentially enhance tax-advantaged yield and help to better position you to capitalize on market and sector dislocations.
Visit us at principalglobal.com, or learn more about how we invest municipal bonds here.
1 Morningstar Asset Flows, as 12/31/21 2 Federal Reserve. Financial Accounts of The US report (2021: Q3 Release), released December 9, 2021 3 Federal Reserve. Financial Accounts of The US report (2021: Q3 Release), released December 9, 2021 4 MSRB. Municipal Trade Statistics Report-Trade Summary. 1/1/16-12/31/16 and 1/1/21-12/31/21 5 Federal Reserve Financial Accounts of the United States, Table L. 212 (2018: Q4 Release), released March 9, 2018 6 Federal Reserve, Financial Accounts of The US report (2021: Q3 Release), released December 9, 2021 Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This article is for discussion and educational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. References to specific securities, asset classes and financial markets are for illustrative purposes only and should not be relied upon as a primary basis for an investment decision. Rather, an assessment should be made as to whether the information is appropriate in individual circumstances before making an investment decision. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. This material is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, tax, legal or accounting advice. You should consult your own tax, legal and accounting advisors before engaging in any transaction. Principal Global Investors leads global asset management at Principal®. Principal Global Fixed Income is an investment management team within Principal Global Investors. MM12761 | 03/2022 | 2048369-122022
Kim Friedricks, managing director for fixed income at Kayne Anderson Rudnick (KAR) Investment Management, points to considerable volatility in the US treasury market amid the long-standing prospect for higher interest rates and the recent invasion of Ukraine. ‘The muni market is responding by grinding slowly higher not only in rates, but also in the key municipal to US treasury ratio,’ she says from her base in Los Angeles, California. The 10-year Municipal Market Data (MMD) to US treasury ratio started the year on 3 January at 63.8%. Two months later, on 3 March, it had climbed to 87.1%. At the same time, credit metrics for most state governments have improved over the last couple of years, while rising tax revenues and grants from the federal government have bolstered cash flow significantly. ‘Capital markets have also bolstered investments in pension funds, taking pressure off many issuers that had been looking at significant underfunding prior to the pandemic,’ she adds. Offering tax-free income at higher rates and better quality, KAR believes the muni market is an ‘attractive allocation in taxpayers’ portfolios’. Friedricks advocates for approaching the market in a measured manner by phasing purchases over time. ‘Guessing which day will reach peak yields is a fool’s game,’ she says. ‘In our view, it is preferable to trade into the market a little at a time, looking for what we think are the highest quality opportunities each day rather than going all in on any given day.’
As volatility pushes municipal bond yields higher, four professional investors see merit in an asset class that has a privileged tax position and defensive characteristics, finds Jennifer Hill
KIM FRIEDRICKS
KAYNE ANDERSON RUDNICK INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT
Fiduciary Trust International believes the muni space is becoming more attractive in the current environment. ‘Most issuers are in better fundamental shape than they have been in years,’ says Jeff MacDonald, its New York City-based head of fixed income strategies. Strong revenues, Covid-related Federal assistance and conservative budgeting in recent years has improved creditworthiness. Resultantly, upgrades are outpacing downgrades. Moody’s upgrade of New Jersey’s state bond rating to A2 from A3 at the start of March is a noteworthy example. MacDonald believes yields in the muni market can grind higher during 2022 in response to Fed policy changes and interest rate hikes. Real yields across most US fixed income sectors remain deeply negative, so any slowdown in inflation would also improve attractiveness. Fiduciary Trust is seeing better value in the small to mid-size deals that are coming to market. ‘We are finding opportunities in certain school district deals where credit fundamentals are supported by a strong combination of property taxes and state aid and issues where bondholders are provided with structural protections from the issuers,’ he says. ‘We are also finding some opportunities in the housing sector where a bit of spread widening has added to the sector’s attractiveness.’ The wealth manager remains focused on solid collateral for these deals where government-guaranteed mortgages back the bonds. Generally speaking, it favors planned amortization class structures. ‘These mean we are structurally protected from pre-payment risk, keeping our cash flows more certain and reliable.’
JEFF MACDONALD
FIDUCIARY TRUST INTERNATIONAL
Asset Preservation Advisors (APA) points to municipal bond prices being close to a two-year low, sending yields to a level that has ‘started to get interesting’. ‘Munis are close to the cheapest levels we have seen versus Treasuries since 2020 as ratios near a historically significant 90%,’ says president Trish Hodgman. ‘While there could be further volatility to navigate throughout the remainder of the year, when looking at relative value, we view current levels as a potentially attractive entry point for investors. ‘The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict brought on haven buying in muni bonds, offering some stability in the space. However, we are now entering what is traditionally a weak stretch for the muni market with anticipated selling ahead of the April tax deadline. ‘Our view is that volatility creates opportunity, and with the moves we have seen on both the short end and the belly of the curve, we believe yields have started to get interesting.’ Over the longer term, APA’s main objectives in allocating to municipal bonds remain constant: preservation of principal, mitigating overall portfolio volatility and maximizing tax-free income. ‘Historically, munis have had low correlation to other asset classes and a negative correlation to the S&P 500, suggesting they may serve as a solid portfolio diversifier,’ adds Hodgman. ‘We do not anticipate tax rates moving lower anytime soon, so for high-net worth investors, we believe the tax advantage makes municipal bonds a worthy component of a core fixed income allocation.’
TRISH HODGMAN
ASSET PRESERVATION ADVISORS
With more than $250bn flooding into municipal bond funds over the last three years – 40% of it last year alone – the market volatility and resultant repricing seen this year could be deemed overdue. Looking ahead, however, Kestra Financial due diligence analyst Joan Alexandre reckons the municipal market’s taxable segment, with its strong credit quality and higher yields, may provide institutional and retail investors with a ‘compelling alternative’ to traditional taxable fixed income. While the municipal market remains vulnerable to tax policy changes given its favorable income treatment, it has a history of resilience. Issuance data suggests that persists today. ‘With lawmakers revisiting the cap on state and local tax deduction, fears of lower demand by wealthy investors in high-tax states like California, New York, New Jersey and Connecticut have surfaced, but adaptability seems to be a hallmark of this credit segment,’ says Alexandre. ‘When the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act eliminated the tax exemption on interest from refinancing issuance, worries coalesced on the potential for supply/demand dislocations. That taxable municipal debt now accounts for roughly 30% of new issuance annually suggests issuers and investors have handily adjusted. ‘Indeed, the number of taxable municipals rated AA- and above is outpacing corporates 10 to one.’ For investors seeking to temper credit risk, taxable munis may offer greater opportunities than investment-grade corporates. ‘Despite being four times the size of the municipal market, the corporate market has less than 20 unique issuers of AAA bonds,’ adds Alexandre.
JOAN ALEXANDRE
KESTRA FINANCIAL
Rachel Betton
Portfolio Manager, Municipal Bonds
David Hammer
Head of Municipal Bond Portfolio Management
As investors contemplate the effects of volatility and tightening monetary policy across asset classes, municipal bonds could be buttressed by characteristics that have helped them outperform during past periods of rising interest rates. High credit quality and low correlations to other markets – including high yield corporate bonds and equities – have historically helped munis later in economic cycles. On a tax-adjusted basis¹, investment grade munis² outperformed Treasuries by 344 basis points (bps) annualized during the past two Fed rate-hiking cycles, while outperforming U.S. investment grade corporate bonds³ by 253 bps. High yield munis⁴ have achieved even greater outperformance. As absolute yield levels rise, the value of the tax exemption embedded in most munis becomes increasingly valuable. Higher rates can provide a disincentive to municipalities to refinance outstanding debt, suppressing supply. Treasury rates often rise during periods of economic strength, which tend to support muni credit fundamentals and compress credit spreads. Credit fundamentals are expected to retain recent positive momentum, driven by strong tax collections, including property taxes, and dry powder from federal relief funding that can be appropriated in 2022. We expect federal funds to bolster sectors including higher education, airports, and not-for-profit health care. Risks include labor-market pressures, which may drive increased spending to fill open positions and potentially generous long-term contracts to retain employees. With volatility revisiting financial markets, investors may want to re-focus on allocations to tax-exempt municipals as a possible source of diversification. Active managers such as PIMCO can provide further benefits by taking advantage of market opportunities and mispricings when they arise. The PIMCO Advantage PIMCO enables advisors to offer municipal products that are tailored to investors’ needs. By applying institutional discipline to the municipal market, we believe PIMCO is better equipped to help clients meet a range of objectives, from capital preservation to maximized tax-efficient income. In addition, we offer a wide range of highly customizable separate accounts and innovative solutions such as a municipal bond interval fund. PIMCO Municipals PIMCO has invested heavily in its municipal platform over the last decade. Today, we manage over $76 billion in dedicated municipal strategies across separately managed accounts, mutual funds, ETFs, and an interval fund. Our expert municipal investment team includes 30+ dedicated muni team members across portfolio management, credit research, quantitative research, and risk management. PIMCO Municipals follows the same time-tested investment process that drives all our investments, relying on the combination of our top-down macro outlook and bottom-up fundamental credit research. The team is fully integrated with the rest of the business and we work closely with our team of 85+ global credit research analysts.
Visit Municipal Bonds at PIMCO, our central hub for muni content and investments.
1. Taxable equivalent municipal return is calculated assuming the top federal income tax rate (35.0% to 39.6% as applicable) from 06/30/2004 to present and Medicare investment tax (3.8%) from 2013-present, applied to the yield component of return. We utilize Bloomberg reported yield to worst on a monthly basis in order to proxy earned income. 2. Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index 3. Bloomberg US Corporate Index 4. Bloomberg High Yield Municipal Index All data is 31 December 2021, unless otherwise stated. The managed account strategies described in this material are offered by Pacific Investment Management Company LLC, and are available exclusively through financial professionals. Managed accounts have a minimum asset level and may not be appropriate for all investors. Financial professionals seeking more information should contact their managed accounts department or call their PIMCO representative. Individual account holdings will vary depending on the size of an account, cash flows and account restrictions. Portfolio holdings are subject to change daily without notice. At any time an individual account managed in this strategy may or may not include securities held by another portfolio. Consequently, any particular account may have portfolio characteristics and performance that differ from another individual account in this strategy. A word about risk: All investments contain risk and may lose value. Investing in the bond market is subject to risks, including market, interest rate, issuer, credit, inflation risk, and liquidity risk. The value of most bonds and bond strategies are impacted by changes in interest rates. Bonds and bond strategies with longer durations tend to be more sensitive and volatile than those with shorter durations; bond prices generally fall as interest rates rise, and low interest rate environments increase this risk. Reductions in bond counterparty capacity may contribute to decreased market liquidity and increased price volatility. Bond investments may be worth more or less than the original cost when redeemed. Investors will, at times, incur a tax liability. Income from municipal bonds is exempt from federal income tax and may be subject to state and local taxes and at times the alternative minimum tax. Management risk is the risk that the investment techniques and risk analyses applied by PIMCO will not produce the desired results, and that certain policies or developments may affect the investment techniques available to PIMCO in connection with managing the strategy. Correlation is a statistical measure of how two securities move in relation to each other. PIMCO does not provide legal or tax advice. Please consult your tax and/or legal counsel for specific tax or legal questions and concerns. PIMCO as a general matter provides services to qualified institutions, financial intermediaries and institutional investors. Individual investors should contact their own financial professional to determine the most appropriate investment options for their financial situation. This material contains the current opinions of the manager and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission. PIMCO is a trademark of Allianz Asset Management of America L.P. in the United States and throughout the world. Pacific Investment Management Company LLC, 650 Newport Center Drive, Newport Beach, CA 92660, 800-387-4626. ©2022, PIMCO. CMR2022-0311-2077216
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You are granted no other rights in relation to the App and all rights not expressly granted are reserved by us. You acknowledge and agree that Citywire has no responsibility for or in relation to the app store from which you downloaded the App and has no obligation to maintain the App. The App is supplied ‘as is’ and neither Citywire nor any anyone else makes any representation, warranty, condition or other commitment (whether express or implied, by statute, common law, collaterally or otherwise) of any kind in relation to the App. Neither Citywire nor anyone else will have any liability of whatever nature (whether in contract, negligence or other tort or otherwise) in relation to the App. You will not reverse engineer, decompile or otherwise endeavour to obtain the source code to the App (save to the extent that you cannot be prohibited from so doing under applicable law). 6. Contributions 6.1 Whenever you make any Contribution you must comply with the Content Standards. 6.2 Subject to these terms of use, Citywire acknowledges and agrees that you retain ownership of all your intellectual property rights to your Contributions, and no intellectual property rights shall be assigned from you to Citywire. 6.3 You grant Citywire a perpetual, royalty-free, non-exclusive, perpetual (which for the avoidance of doubt means continuing after this Agreement), irrevocable, transferable, world-wide licence to use, copy, distribute, display, disclose and sell to third parties any Contribution (in whole or in part) for any purpose. These activities include but are not limited to editing or creating derivative works of any Contribution. 6.4 To the maximum extent permitted by applicable law, you irrevocably and unconditionally waive all moral rights to any Contribution. 6.5 You acknowledge and agree that (i) we have the right to remove or edit any Contribution you make on our services, including modifying and adapting it for operational and editorial reasons, with or without showing or marking that the Contribution has been removed or edited; and (ii) we have the right to disclose your identity to any third party who is claiming that any Contribution constitutes a violation of their intellectual property rights, or of their right to privacy. 6.6 Citywire does not moderate or actively review Contributions. Therefore all Members and visitors to the Site should treat any Contributions with caution. You accept (i) that we are not responsible for content of Contributions; (ii) that we do not endorse any of the material contained in them; and (iii) Citywire does not check the accuracy of information supplied by Members in their profiles. 6.7 It is the policy of Citywire to respond to alleged infringement notices that comply with the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (“DMCA”). If you believe that your copyrighted work has been copied in a way that constitutes copyright infringement and is accessible via the Solution, please notify the Citywire copyright agent as set forth below. For your complaint to be valid under the DMCA, you must provide the following information in writing: a. An electronic or physical signature of a person authorized to act on behalf of the copyright owner; b. Identification of the copyrighted work that you claim has been infringed; c. 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The above information must be submitted to the following Citywire copyright agent: Ona Kviliute +44 (0)20 7840 5125 okviliute@citywire.co.uk 3 Spring Mews, London, SE11 5AN, United Kingdom UNDER FEDERAL LAW, IF YOU KNOWINGLY MISREPRESENT YOUR CLAIM, YOU MAY BE SUBJECT TO CRIMINAL PROSECUTION FOR PERJURY AND CIVIL PENALTIES, INCLUDING MONETARY DAMAGES, COURT COSTS, AND ATTORNEYS’ FEES. In accordance with the DMCA and other applicable law, Citywire has adopted a policy of terminating, in appropriate circumstances, the accounts of users who are deemed to be infringers. Citywire may also, at its sole discretion, limit access to the Site and/or terminate the accounts of any users who infringe any intellectual property rights of others, whether or not there is any repeat infringement. 7. Acceptable Use Policy 7.1 You may use our Site only for lawful purposes. You may not: (i) use our Site in any way that breaches any applicable local, national or international law or regulation; (ii) use any materials, data or information which you have obtained from the Site in any manner which, in Citywire’s reasonable opinion, is derogatory, damages Citywire’s reputation or takes advantage of it in any way; (iii) use our Site in any way that is unlawful or fraudulent, or has any unlawful or fraudulent purpose or effect; (iv) use our Site to send, knowingly receive, upload, download, use or re-use any material which does not comply with the Content Standards; (v) subject to Clause 5, deep-link to any portion of our Site for any purposes without the prior written permission of Citywire; (vi) perform any automated use of our Site, such as, but not limited to, using robots, spiders, scripts to create Contributions, to extract any of the content of our Site through such means as ‘screen scraping’, ‘database scraping’ or otherwise; (vii) violate the restrictions in any robot exclusion headers on this website or bypass or circumvent other measures employed to prevent or limit access to our Site; (viii) use this service as research or support for, or to inform your own or your company’s or employer’s subscription based service, or any subscription based service without obtaining a licence from Citywire in writing, such licence to be on commercial terms agreed by the parties; (ix) use our Site (or any of the Content) for the purpose of building a database or to use this for your own commercial exploitation by its inclusion in your own activities and/or services without obtaining the written approval of Citywire in advance of its publication; (x) access, use, or distribute the Site, App (or any Content) to develop (or assist any third party in developing) a product or service (including events) that competes with any product, service, or event of Citywire, or for any other competitive purposes. 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Content standards 8.1 These content standards apply when you make a Contribution to the Site. These content standards apply to each part of any Contribution as well as to its whole. 8.2 Contributions must: (i) be accurate (where they state facts); (ii) be genuinely held (where they state opinions); and (iii) comply with applicable law, rules and regulations, in the U.S. and in any country from which they are posted. 8.3 Contributions must not: (i) infringe or promote infringement of any copyright, database right, trade mark or other intellectual property right of any other person (including, promoting or offering pirated computer programs or links to such programs, information used to circumvent manufacturer-installed copy-protect devices, including serial registration numbers for software programs, rights management information or any type of cracker utilities); (ii) contain intentionally made false or misleading statements; (iii) offer to buy, sell or broker an investment; (iv) violate applicable laws, rules or regulations, including without limitation, rules or regulations of any applicable stock exchange or breach insider dealing regulations or confidentiality agreements; (v) involve commercial activities and/or sales without prior written consent from us such as contests, sweepstakes, group-buying, advertising, or pyramid schemes; (vi) be made in breach of any legal duty owed to a third party, such as a contractual duty or a duty of confidence; (vii) contain any material or link to material which: a. is defamatory of any person; b. is obscene, vulgar offensive, hateful or inflammatory; c. is likely to harass, upset, embarrass, alarm or annoy any other person; d. is threatening, abusive or invade another’s privacy, or likely to cause annoyance, inconvenience or needless anxiety; e. contains or promotes sexually explicit material or violence; f. promote discrimination based on race, sex, religion, nationality, disability, sexual orientation or age; or g. is likely to deceive any person; (viii) use invalid or forged headers to disguise the origin of any Contribution, or otherwise misrepresenting yourself or the source of any Contribution; (ix) use our Site to transmit, or procure the sending of, any unsolicited or unauthorised advertising or promotional material or any other form of similar solicitation (spam); (x) be used to impersonate any person, or to misrepresent your identity or affiliation with any person; (xi) give the impression that they emanate from Citywire or a Citywire employee, administrator or moderator, or another user of our Site; or (xii) advocate, promote or assist any illegal activity. 9. Non-reliance 9.1 You agree that you are responsible for your own investment decisions and that you are responsible for assessing the suitability and accuracy of all information and for obtaining your own advice thereon. You recognise that any information given on our Site is not related to your particular circumstances. Circumstances vary and you should seek your own advice on the suitability to them of any investment or investment technique that may be mentioned. (a) We do not provide, and no Content constitutes, investment advice; (b) You will not treat or represent Content as investment advice; (c) We do not recommend or endorse any product; (d) Content is not intended to address your particular requirements. We are not aware of circumstances specific to you and which could influence which financial products are more or less suitable for you and do not represent that we are aware of any such circumstances. We do not recommend that any particular product is suitable for you; (e) No Content constitutes or should be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in any investment activity; (f) Any investment decision made by you is entirely at your own risk; (g) Subject to paragraph 11, we shall not be liable for any losses, cost or expenses which may be incurred by you as a result of any investment made; (h) You may not use the Content in, or generate based on the Content, any advice, recommendations, guidance, publications or alerts made available to your clients or other third parties; (i) Whilst we try to ensure the Content is accurate and up to date, we cannot be responsible for any inaccuracies in Content. We are under no responsibility to provide you with access to any additional information or to update the Site, even if inaccuracies become apparent. 9.2 The fund manager performance analyses and ratings provided on this website are the opinions of Citywire as at the date they are expressed and are not recommendations to purchase, hold or sell any investment or to make any investment decisions. Citywire’s opinions and analyses do not address the suitability of any investment for any specific purposes or requirements and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. 9.3 Persons who do not have professional experience in participating in unregulated collective investment schemes should not rely on material relating to such schemes. 9.4 Past performance of investments is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Prices of investments may fall as well as rise. 9.5 Persons associated with or employed by Citywire may hold positions or take positions in investments referred to in this publication. 9.6 Citywire operates a policy of independence in relation to matters where the operators may have a material interest or conflict of interest. 10. Limited Warranty 10.1 Citywire will use reasonable endeavours to maintain the Site. You will not be eligible for any compensation because you cannot use any part of the Site or for any failure of the Site as a result of an event beyond Citywire’s reasonable control. 10.2 Neither Citywire nor its employees assume any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, completeness or availability of the information contained on our Site. 10.3 Neither Citywire nor anyone else makes any representation, warranty, condition or other commitment of whatever nature in relation to any information obtained by you through use of this Site. 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FURTHER, TO THE GREATEST EXTENT PERMITTED BY LAW, THE TOTAL LIABILITY OF CITYWIRE IS LIMITED TO THE GREATER OF $50 OR AN AMOUNT NOT EXCEEDING THE TOTAL AMOUNT ACTUALLY PAID BY YOU TO CITYWIRE DURING THE PRIOR SIX (6) MONTHS IN CONNECTION WITH YOUR INDIVIDUAL USE OF THE SITE OR THE APP. In addition, you may bring a claim only on your own behalf. You will not participate in a class action or class-wide arbitration for any claims covered by these terms. 12. Changes to our Terms Citywire may change the Terms from time to time. Any such changes will be incorporated on our Site. Changes will take effect 30 days after notification. Your continued use of any part of the Site following such change shall be deemed to be your acceptance of such amended Terms. You acknowledge that you are solely responsible for checking these Terms from time to time to see the changes which have been made to these Terms. If you do not accept any such changes you should stop using our Site. 13. Breaches; Term and Termination 13.1 The Terms will take (re-take) effect at the time you access and use the Site. You agree that Citywire may terminate your membership or the agreement constituted by these Terms (as Citywire may choose) and restrict your access to the Site (or part thereof) without prejudice to any other rights or remedies that Citywire may have if Citywire is of the reasonable opinion that you have breached these Terms or acted inconsistently with the spirit of these Terms. The provisions concerning Intellectual Property Rights, The Site, Contributions, Non-Reliance, Limited Warranty, Liability, Breaches; Term and Termination, Enforcing Security, Governing Law, Arbitration, Injunctive Relief, Waiver and Severability and Entire Agreement the Solution Feedback, Confidentiality, will survive the termination of these Terms and Conditions for any reason. 13.2 You agree to indemnify Citywire against any and all actions, claims, costs, proceedings, losses, damages or liabilities arising from your use of the Site or App (including without limitation Contributions or Content) and/or in relation to any information or data you use or access by means of the Site. 13.3 You acknowledge that a breach of these Terms may give rise to civil damages and criminal penalties. Citywire reserve the right to take action against you to uphold these Terms and its rights, which may involve pursuing injunctive proceedings, as further set forth below. 14. Enforcing Security You may not use the Site, App, Content or any of Citywire’s data, systems, network, or services to engage in, foster, or promote illegal, abusive, or irresponsible behavior, including, without limitation, accessing or using data, systems, or networks in an unauthorized manner, attempting to probe, scan, or test the vulnerability of a Citywire system or network, circumventing any Citywire security or authentication measures, monitoring Citywire data or traffic, interfering with any Citywire services, collecting or using from the Site email addresses, screen names, or other identifiers, collecting or using from the Site information without the consent of the owner or licensor, using any false, misleading, or deceptive TCP-IP packet header information, using the Site to distribute software or tools that gather information, distributing advertisements, or engaging in conduct that it likely to result in retaliation against Citywire or its data, systems, or network. Actual or attempted unauthorized use of the Site may result in criminal and/or civil prosecution, including, without limitation, punishment under the Computer Fraud and Abuse Act of 1986 under U.S. federal law. Citywire reserves the right to view, monitor, and record activity through the Site without notice or permission from you. Any information obtained by monitoring, reviewing, or recording is subject to review by law enforcement organizations in connection with investigation or prosecution of possible criminal or unlawful activity through the Site as well as to disclosures required by or under applicable law or related government agency actions. Citywire will also comply with all court orders or subpoenas involving requests for such information. In addition to the foregoing, Citywire reserves the right to, at any time and without notice, modify, update, suspend, terminate, or interrupt operation of or access to the Site, or any portion of the Site in order to protect Citywire. 15. Governing Law; Void Where Prohibited All offers for all functions, products or services, which are made on the Site, are void if they are prohibited by applicable law. You access the Site on your own volition and are responsible for compliance with all applicable laws with respect to your own access and use of the Site and its offerings. These Terms have been made in and will be construed and enforced in accordance with the laws of the State of New York, U.S.A. as applied to agreements entered into and completely performed in the State of New York (without effect to its conflicts of law provisions). 16. Arbitration Subject to the right of Citywire to seek injunctive relief, disputes will be will be resolved by binding, individual arbitration under the American Arbitration Association pursuant to its Commercial Arbitration Rules or pursuant to its International Centre for Dispute Resolution (ICDR) Rules, and judgment on the award rendered by the arbitrator(s) may be entered in any court having competent jurisdiction thereof. There is no judge or jury in arbitration, and court review of an arbitration award is limited. For any arbitration, the arbitrator(s) selected shall have a minimum of ten years of experience with and knowledge of the subject matter of the claim and dispute. The place of arbitration shall be in New York, New York. The arbitrator shall be bound by the provisions of these Terms and base the award on applicable law and judicial precedent. The arbitrator may award money or equitable relief in favor of only the individual party seeking relief and only to the extent necessary to provide relief warranted by that party’s individual claim. Similarly, an arbitration award and any judgment confirming it apply only to that specific case; it cannot be used in any other case except to enforce the award itself. However, the arbitrator(s) may award to the prevailing party all of its costs and fees. “Costs and fees” mean all reasonable pre-award expenses of the arbitration, including the arbitrator’s fees, administrative fees, travel expenses, out-of-pocket expenses such as copying and telephone, court costs, witness fees, and attorneys’ fees. Upon rendering a decision, the arbitrator(s) shall state in writing the basis for the decision, including the findings of fact and conclusions of law upon which the decision is based. The decision of the arbitrator(s) shall be final and binding upon the parties, and shall not be subject to appeal. You and Citywire have agreed to execute this Agreement in the English language, and all dispute settlement proceedings and communications, written and oral, between you and Citywire shall be conducted in the English language. 17. Injunctive Relief Notwithstanding the arbitration provision above, you acknowledge that any breach, threatened or actual, of these Terms, including, without limitation, with respect to unauthorized use of Citywire’s proprietary assets and especially, any Content, will cause irreparable injury to Citywire. Such injury would not be quantifiable in monetary damages and Citywire would not have an adequate remedy at law. You therefore agree that Citywire shall be entitled, in addition to other available remedies, to seek and be awarded an injunction or other appropriate equitable relief from a court of competent jurisdiction restraining any breach, threatened or actual, of your obligations under any provision of this Terms. Accordingly, you hereby waive any requirement that Citywire post any bond or other security in the event any injunctive or equitable relief is sought by or awarded to Citywire to enforce any provision of these Terms. 18. Waiver and Severability Failure to insist on strict performance of any of the terms and conditions of these Terms will not operate as a waiver of any subsequent default or failure of performance. No waiver by Citywire of any right under these Terms will be deemed to be either a waiver of any other right or provision or a waiver of that same right or provision at any other time. If any part of these Terms are determined to be invalid or unenforceable pursuant to applicable law including, but not limited to, the warranty disclaimers and the liability limitations set forth above, then the invalid or unenforceable provision will be deemed superseded by a valid, enforceable provision that most clearly matches the intent of the original provision and the remainder of these Terms shall continue in effect. 19. Notice; Consent to Electronic Communications When you visit this Site or send e-mails to us, you are communicating with us electronically. You consent to receive communications from us electronically. We will communicate with you by e-mail or by posting notices on this Site. You agree that all agreements, notices, disclosures and other communications that we provide to you electronically satisfy any legal requirement that such communications be in writing. 20. Entire Agreement You and Citywire are independent contractors. No joint venture, partnership, employment, or agency relationship exists between you and Citywire as a result of these Terms or your utilization of the Site. These Terms represents the entire agreement between you and Citywire with respect to your individual use of the Site. These Terms may not be assigned, transferred, conveyed, delegated, or granted by you to another party or person without the prior written consent of Citywire.
This communication is by Citywire Financial Publishers Ltd (“Citywire”) and is provided in Citywire’s capacity as financial journalists for general information and news purposes only. It is not (and is not intended to be) an any form of advice, recommendation, representation, endorsement or arrangement by Citywire or an invitation to invest or an offer to buy, sell, underwrite or subscribe for any particular investment. In particular, the information provided will not address your particular circumstances, objectives and attitude towards risk. Any opinions expressed by Citywire or its staff do not constitute a personal recommendation to you to buy, sell, underwrite or subscribe for any particular investment and should not be relied upon when making (or refraining from making) any investment decisions. In particular, the information and opinions provided by Citywire do not take into account your personal circumstances, objectives and attitude towards risk. Citywire uses information obtained primarily from sources believed to be reliable (such as company reports and financial reporting services) however Citywire cannot guarantee the accuracy of information provided, or that the information will be up-to-date or free from errors. Investors and prospective investors should not rely on any information or data provided by Citywire but should satisfy themselves of the accuracy and timeliness of any information or data before engaging in any investment activity. If in doubt about a particular investment decision an investor should consult a regulated investment advisor who specialises in that particular sector. Information includes but is not restricted to any video, article or guide content created or provided by Citywire. For your information we would like to draw your attention to the following general investment warnings: The price of shares and investments and the income associated with them can go down as well as up, and investors may not get back the amount they invested. The spread between the bid and offer prices of securities can be significant in volatile market conditions, especially for smaller companies. Realisation of small investments may be relatively costly. Some investments are not suitable for unsophisticated or non-professional investors. Appropriate independent advice should be obtained before making any such decision to buy, sell, underwrite or subscribe for any investment and should take into account your circumstances and attitude to risk. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Citywire Investment Warning